The impact of climate change, sea-storm
events and land subsidence in the Adriatic
P. Teatini, G. Gambolati
Dept. Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific
Applications, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
ABSTRACT
The Northern Adriatic coastland comprised between the cities of Monfalcone and
Cattolica is characterized by locations of great tourist interest, such as the
Venice Lagoon and the Romagna Riviera, and areas with a very precarious
environmental setting, such as the Valli di Comacchio and the Po river delta.
Therefore the coastal management and the design of new defense works of the
littoral have to be made with the utmost care, possibly with the aid of numerical
predictions of the coastal morphodynamics and the flood risk analysis of the
lowland involved. In the study area land may subside due to sediment natural
compaction and subsurface fluid (water and gas) withdrawal. At the same time
littoral transport of solid material can contribute appreciably to change the
shore morphology. Mean sea level may rise permanently due to global climate
change and occasionally due to tides and intensive storm events. The predictions
of each individual process are obtained using ad hoc mathematical models and the
outcome of the numerical simulations are managed with a GIS (Geographical
Information System). Coastline evolution until the year 2100 is investigated and
risk factor maps of the low-lying coastal areas are generated which account for
the hazard of the expected event, and the land economic value and vulnerability.
