GIS applications and
flood risk analysis in the Upper Adriatic Sea
M. Gonella
Med Ingegneria S.r.l., Ferrara, Italy
P. Teatini, L. Tomasi, G. Gambolati
Dept. Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific
Applications, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
ABSTRACT
The lowlying coastal areas of the Eastern Po plain bordered by the
Upper Adriatic Sea are characterized by environments (lagoons, marshes
and river deltas) with precarious hydrogeological features. In the
years to come, the setting of these zones will become more critical during
severe meteo-marine storms due to a
relative sea level rise caused by global climate warming and natural and
anthropogenic land subsidence.
The inundation risk related to these areas
and the potential shoreline
regression are analyzed in the next 100 years by a GIS procedure. The
GIS known as GRASS is applied to account for the variations of both
the ground
and the sea level obtained from the model package developed in the CENAS
project. The size of the flooded areas and the economic loss
hazard associated with them are evaluated over the entire coastal profile
with a coarse
spatial resolution, and at Ravenna, Cesenatico, and Rimini with a more
detailed resolution. Several situations are analyzed for different
prediction times
(at present, in 2050 and 2100), different storm return periods (1, 10
and 100 years), and two anthropogenic subsidence scenarios.
