Coastal morphodynamics of the Upper Adriatic
Sea due to eustatic changes and land subsidence
G. Gambolati, G. Giunta, M. Putti, P. Teatini, L. Tomasi
Dept. Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific
Applications, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
I. Betti, M. Morelli
ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
J. Berlamont, K. De Backer, C. Decouttere, J. Monbaliu, C.S. Yu
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Catholic University of Leuven, Leuven,
Belgium
I. Broker, E.D. Christensen, B. Elfrink
Danish Hydraulic Institute, Hoersholm, Denmark
A. Dante, M. Gonella
Med Ingegneria S.r.l., Ferrara, Italy
ABSTRACT
The Upper Adriatic basin has experienced in recent times continuous
changes due to the precarious setting of the coastal environment and
the low ground elevation above m.s.l. of many coastal areas. Major
events which may influence the future stability of the beach profile
include natural and anthropogenic land subsidence, sea level rise
caused by global climate change, storm surge and wave set-up, and
reduced littoral sediment transport. In the CENAS project, all
these events are addressed and simulated with the aid of ad hoc}
numerical models, and modeling results are used to predict the
coastal morphodynamics of the Upper Adriatic Sea in the next
century. The models
are integrated and implemented into a GIS, together with a large
database of all the essential information and records needed for the
analysis. These data include the geometry, geology, hydraulics and
meteorology of the basin, and related input parameters. The area
investigated by the project is 350 km long and comprises three local
sites south of the Po river delta (Ravenna, Cesenatico and Rimini)
where a detailed coastal study has been performed. The results
indicate that a general regression of the beach is to be expected in
the next decades, mainly in the area south of the Po river delta, due
to mean sea level rise and land subsidence, and that a large portion
of the present coastal lowland will be potentially flooded in 2100 during
severe meteo-marine events.
Risk maps of inundation have been generated at the basin macro scale
as well as the local
scale using the GIS and some indication is
given as to the locations where major coastal defence actions are to
be undertaken in the years to come.
