Hydro-morphologic setting of the Samborombon Bay (Argentina)
at the end of the 21st century
L. Tosi, F. Braga, F. Rizzetto
Institute of Marine Sciences, CNR, Venezia, Italy
E. E. Kruse, E. S. Carol, S. C. Carretero, J. L. Pousa
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas,
Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata, Argentina
P. Teatini
Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of
Padova, Padova, Italy
ABSTRACT
We report on the hydrologic and morphologic
setting of the Samborombon Bay, Argentina, which is expected
at the end of the 21st century as a consequence of
possible scenarios of relative sea level rise (RSLR). The
geomorphological analysis of the Samborombon coastland
points out only minor changes occurred over the last 40 yr.
The modifications are mainly related to the construction of
canals to enhance the floodplain drainage. A digital elevation
model (DEM) obtained by the Shuttle Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM) data archive, ad hoc calibrated/validated
for the study area, highlights that about 3000 km2 of coastal
plain present a morphological setting at high risk of sea
flooding. The analysis of sea level and storm surge events
recorded from 1905 to 2010 in Buenos Aires provides the
RSLR rate and the return period of extreme floods. In addition,
vertical land movements (VLM) measured by the permanent
GPS stations of Buenos Aires and La Plata allow for
the quantification of the eustatic component of the RSLR and
estimating a plausible RSLR rate in the Samborombon Bay.
Taking into account possible RSLR scenarios at the end of
2100 as resulting from the statistical analysis of (i) tide gauge
and GPS time series and (ii) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) predictions, the potential effect of the
increased sea level on the Samborombon coastland is simulated.
The results show that the combined rise of sea levels,
surficial waters and groundwater will lead to a new morphohydrologic
setting of the coastal area, especially in the lowlying
southern sector. Here, a coastline retreat up to 40 km is
expected, with temporary submersion up to 4000 km2 during
storm surges.
