Groundwater pumping and land subsidence in the Emilia-Romagna coastland,
Italy: Modeling the past occurrence and the future trend
P. Teatini, M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati
Dept. Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific
Applications, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
M. Gonella
Med Ingegneria S.r.l., Ferrara, Italy
ABSTRACT
The Emilia-Romagna coastland south of the Po
River delta, Italy, has experienced a dramatic land settlement mainly due to
the large groundwater withdrawal related to the local
economic and tourist development started in the early
1950s. Although the use of surface water has reduced the settlement
rate over the last three decades, anthropogenic land subsidence still
continues in a few kilometer
wide coastal strip at a rate larger than the natural one.
The occurrence is reconstructed since 1946 with
the aid of advanced finite element flow and poro-mechanical
models implemented with a realistically detailed geology of
the regional shallow multiaquifer system. The models have been
calibrated against the piezometric, leveling, and extensometer records
observed over the last 50 years, and a land subsidence prediction in
2016 is performed.
The results show that the extensive groundwater pumping occurred in
the past is most likely the main responsible for the recent land
settlement as well,
because of the delayed compaction of the clay aquitards comprised
between the depleted aquifers. However, the available pumping data
do not allow for a thorough understanding of the current local
settlement process along the coastline which is the most
vulnerable area of the Emilia-Romagna region from an environmental
viewpoint. If the planned scenario of groundwater resource
management will
be implemented, anthropogenic land subsidence is bound to become a
marginal problem for the central and northern portion of the
Emilia-Romagna coastland.
