A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques
L. Gazzola, M. Ferronato, M. Frigo, P. Teatini, C. Zoccarato
Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering,
University of Padova, Padova, Italy
M. Antonelli, A. Corradi, M. C. Dacome, S. Mantica
Eni S.p.A., Milan, Italy
Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models,
which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and
approximations are present, as in any other modeling activity of real-world phenomena.
This study aims at combining data assimilation techniques with a physically-based
numerical model of anthropogenic land subsidence in a novel and comprehensive workflow,
to overcome the main limitations concerning the way traditional deterministic analyses
use the available measurements. The proposed methodology allows to reduce uncertainties
affecting the model, identify the most appropriate rock constitutive behavior and
characterize the most significant governing geomechanical parameters. The proposed
methodological approach has been applied in a synthetic test case representative of the
Upper Adriatic basin, Italy. The integration of data assimilation techniques into
geomechanical modeling appears to be a useful and effective tool for a more reliable
study of anthropogenic land subsidence.
