GIS simulations of the inundation
risk in the coastal lowlands of the Northern Adriatic Sea
G. Gambolati, P. Teatini
Dept. Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific
Applications, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
M. Gonella
Med Ingegneria S.r.l., Ferrara, Italy
ABSTRACT
The Northern Adriatic coastland,
between the cities of Monfalcone and Cattolica, is characterized by
locations of great tourist interest, such as the Venice Lagoon and the
Romagna Riviera, and areas with a very precarious environmental
setting, such as the Valli di Comacchio and the Po river delta.
Therefore the coastal management and the design of new defence works
of the littoral have to be made with the utmost care, possibly with
the aid of numerical predictions of the coastal morphodynamics and the
flood risk analysis of the lowland involved.
In the study area land may subside due to sediment natural compaction
and subsurface fluid (water and gas) withdrawal. At the same time littoral
transport of solid material can contribute appreciably to change the
shore morphology. Mean sea level may rise permanently due to global climate
change (eustatism) and occasionally due to tides and intensive storm events. The
predictions of each individual process is obtained
using various ad hoc mathematical models and the outcome of the numerical
simulations are managed with a GIS (Geographical Information System).
Coastline evolution until the year 2100 is investigated and
risk factor maps of the low-lying coastal areas are generated which account for
the hazard of the expected event, and the land economic value and
vulnerability.
