A parametric numerical analysis of factors controlling
ground ruptures caused by groundwater pumping
M. Frigo, M. Ferronato, P. Teatini
Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering,
University of Padova, Padova, Italy
J. Yu
Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geological Disaster,
Ministry of Land and Resources, Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, China
S. Ye
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
D. Galloway
Earth Science Processes Division, Water Mission Area, United States Geological Survey, Indianapolis, IN, USA
D. Freyre-Carreon
Centro de Geociencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Queretaro, Mexico
A modeling analysis is used to investigate the relative susceptibility of various hydrogeologic
configurations to aseismic rupture generation due to deformation of aquifer systems accompanying
groundwater pumping. An advanced numerical model (GEPS3D) is used to simulate rupture generation and
propagation for three typical processes: (i) reactivation of a preexisting fault, (ii) differential compaction due
to variations in thickness of aquifer/aquitard layers constituting the aquifer system, and (iii) tensile
fracturing above a bedrock ridge that forms the base of the aquifer system. A sensitivity analysis is developed
to address the relative importance of various factors, including aquifer depletion, aquifer thickness, the
possible uneven distribution and depth below land surface of the aquifer/aquitard layers susceptible to
aquifer‐system compaction, and the height of bedrock ridges beneath the aquifer system which
contributes to thinning of the aquifer system. The rupture evolution is classified in two occurrences. In one,
the rupture develops at either the top of the aquifer or at land surface and does not propagate. In the
other, the developed rupture propagates from the aquifer top toward the land surface and/or from the land
surface downward. The aquifer depth is the most important factor controlling rupture evolution.
Specifically, the probability of a significant rupture propagation is higher when the aquifer top is near land
surface. The numerical results are processed by a statistical regression analysis to provide a general
methodology for a preliminary evaluation of possible ruptures development in exploited aquifer systems
susceptible to compaction and accompanying land subsidence. A comparison with a few representative case
studies in Arizona, USA, China, and Mexico supports the study outcomes.
