Present-day land subsidence risk in
the metropolitan cities of Italy
F. Cigna
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, Rome, Italy
R. Paranunzio
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, Turin, Italy
R. Boni'
Department of Science, Technology and Society, University School for Advanced Studies of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
P. Teatini
Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering,
University of Padova, Padova, Italy
Land subsidence affects many world metropolises, impacting their infrastructure and population. This
work showcases an innovative methodology for exposure-vulnerability rating, hazard quantification
and risk assessment that integrates remotely sensed information on ground displacement, land
cover and settlement characteristics. Land subsidence-induced deformation and structural stress
are quantified within the 15 metropolitan cities of Italy, along with the amount of residential/non-residential
infrastructure and population exposed. A total of 1.44 out of 2665 km2 urbanised land
within the 15 cities is at high risk due to significant angular distortions (and, sometimes, additive
threat from horizontal strain) affecting very high exposure-vulnerability infrastructure; for more than
2700 buildings there is high likelihood of already occurred/incipient structural damage. This reference
knowledge-base on present-day subsidence-induced risk can inform land and risk management at
national scale, and provides a baseline for future assessments to build upon with a look to the next
decades and sustainable urban development.
