Flood risk analysis in the Upper Adriatic Sea due to storm surge, tide
waves, and natural and anthropic land subsidence
M. Gonella
Med Ingegneria S.r.l., Ferrara, Italy
P. Teatini, L. Tomasi, G. Gambolati
Dept. Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific
Applications, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
ABSTRACT
The low-lying coastal areas of the Eastern Po plain bordered by the
Upper Adriatic Sea are characterized by environments (lagoons, marshes
and river deltas) with a precarious hydrogeological features. In the
years to come the setting of these zones will become more critical due to a
relative sea level rise caused by global climate warming and natural and
anthropic land subsidence, and increased mean sea level due to
severe meteo-marine storms. The inundation risk related to these areas
and the potential shoreline
regression are analyzed in the next 100 years by a GIS procedure. The
GIS known as GRASS is applied to account for the variations of both
the ground
and the sea level obtained from the model package developed in the CENAS
project. The size of the flooded areas and the economic loss
hazard associated with them are evaluated for the entire coastal profile
with a coarser
spatial resolution, and at Ravenna, Cesenatico, and Rimini with a more
detailed resolution. Several situations are analyzed for different
prediction times
(at present, in 2050 and 2100), different storm return periods (1, 10
and 100 years), and two anthropic subsidence scenarios.
