Coastal evolution of the Upper Adriatic Sea
due to sea level rise and natural and anthropic land subsidence
G. Gambolati, G. Giunta, M. Putti, P. Teatini, L. Tomasi
Dept. Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific
Applications, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
I. Betti, M. Morelli
ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
J. Berlamont, K. De Backer, C. Decouttere, J. Monbaliu, C.S. Yu
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Catholic University of Leuven, Leuven,
Belgium
I. Broker, E.D. Christensen, B. Elfrink
Danish Hydraulic Institute, Hoersholm, Denmark
A. Dante, M. Gonella
Med Ingegneria S.r.l., Ferrara, Italy
ABSTRACT
The Upper Adriatic basin has experienced in recent times continuous
changes due to the precarious setting of the coastal environment and
the low ground elevation above m.s.l. of many coastal areas. Major
events which may influence the future stability of the beach profile
include the natural and anthropic land subsidence, the sea level rise
caused by the climate global change, storm surge and wave set-up, and
the reduced littoral sediment transport. In the CENAS project all
these events are addressed and simulated with the aid of ad hoc
numerical models, and the modeling results are used to predict the
Upper Adriatic Sea coastal morphodynamics in the next century. The models
are integrated and implemented into a GIS together with a large
database of all the essential information and records needed for the
analysis. These data concern geometry, geology, hydraulics and
meteorology of the basin, and the related input parameters. The area
investigated by the project is 350 km long and comprises three local
sites south of the Po river delta (Ravenna, Cesenatico and Rimini)
where a detailed coastal study has been performed. The results
indicate that a general regression of the beach is to be expected in
the next decades, mainly in the area south of the Po river delta, due
to mean sea level rise and land subsidence, and that a large portion
of the present coastal lowland is potentially flooded in 2100 during
severe meteo-marine events. The basin as well as the local risk maps
of inundation have been built using the GIS and some indication is
given as to the locations where major coastal defence actions are to
be undertaken in the years to come.
